No Fate but What We Make

This Friday’s fight card will bear the distinction of being a weekday pay-per-view event as Anthony Joshua takes on MMA champion Francis Ngannou in Riyadh. There are no titles, no championships and no mandatory-challenger spots at stake in this heavyweight showdown, yet it will be one of the most consequential matches to take place in 2024. That’s because of what happened in the same city at the nearby Boulevard Hall venue with Tyson Fury in October of last year. Ngannou showed that not only is he worthy of competing at the elite level of the heavyweight division in a sport he had never competed in professionally before, but he performed so well that observant fans have to question Fury’s competence as a champion. What, then, is at stake in this crossover clash? Only the fate of the heavyweight division, and the sport itself.

While some, especially in the Fury camp, want to downplay that result (or overemphasize the judges’ decision to score the fight narrowly for Fury), it’s impossible to deny that the sport of boxing has always leaned heavily on the star power of its heavyweight division. Most recently, that division has been composed of a group of 3-5 top athletes, at most. Consistently, Fury, Wilder and Joshua have been three of those fighters. The group of challengers has varied, but never before has it been so clear that a tidal shift may be at hand.

All three of the division’s stars have shown vulnerabilities at times, but Fury had clung to the image of himself promoted by boxing analysts that presented him as the skilled technician, so advanced that his severely inadequate physique was irrelevant to his dominance. Ngannou’s success against Fury was the first crack in that edifice, but more are soon to come. Fury was always going to be the favorite going into a fight against Joshua, and if he can’t outperform an MMA fighter with one professional fight and a 100% loss ratio, the interest in that fight will dwindle, at the very least. If Ngannou actually wins the fight convincingly, he may end up the favorite against any of these top boxers. Wilder, the third musketeer, seems to have begun his final decline already, and the hype around a showdown between Wilder and Joshua has already dissipated, so there wouldn’t be much point in putting him against someone who beat Joshua.

Tyson Fury is no stranger to underperforming, so maybe Joshua will clear up the record this Friday and demonstrate the superiority of his specialization in boxing. Whatever happens, I hope he realizes that there’s more at stake than his pride, his record, or even a future title shot. Friday night will determine no less than the fate of boxing as a major spectator sport.